Travel

WHAT'S NEXT?: How we travel, where we travel and whether we travel at all will mean tremendous change in the decades ahead.

[New] Global travel plummeted beginning in March, leading to an $80 billion industry loss in the first quarter: By year-end, losses could total up to $1.2 trillion.
[New] A 10-per-cent drop in commuter travel time could increase productivity that would boost GDP by $270 million in Vancouver and $535 million in Montreal.
[New] Italy's export markets are set to shrink sharply in 2020, implying a substantial drop in exports, with tourism among the hardest-hit sectors: In 2021, exports are forecast to recover in line with global trade.
[New] While goods exports could bounce back later in the year, lost output in services-producing sectors including travel and tourism cannot be expected to be fully recouped.
[New] In the second half of the year, trade in goods should start rebounding as lockdown measures are gradually lifted and global demand gradually recovers: Trade in services, particularly tourism, is expected to rebound more slowly.
[New] Merchandise trade could fall by as much as 32% this year, with the biggest drops likely in the services sector due to travel restrictions.
[New] The number of tourists to Taiwan is expected to hit a record low in 2020, and the occupancy rate of international tourist hotels is expected to drop drastically.
[New] Most cruise lines are requiring customers to rebook using their FCC by the end of 2021 or within one year of the original sailing date for travel by the end of 2022.
[New] Limited flight options, travel restrictions and quarantine requirements, and China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs' advice against international travel, will ensure that any tourism is domestic.
[New] High disposable income and increasing air travel in Asia-Pacific will contribute to the growth of the market between 2019 and 2026.
[New] Due to the sharp increase in economic growth and disposable incomes in emerging countries demand for air travel is expected to double in the next two decades and grow almost by 4% each year.
[New] Assuming development of a vaccine by summer 2021, global air travel will finally return to pre-COVID levels by the end of 2021, nearly two years after the initial outbreaks.
[New] KPMG expects retail trade, air travel and accommodation and food services to continue to underperform, at around 75% of their pre-pandemic turnover in the March quarter of next year.
[New] With the outlook for airlines and international travel looking highly precarious, even the Colombian government's estimate that tourism receipts could return to their pre COVID-19 levels by mid-2023 look ambitious.
[New] Lower global oil demand growth for 2020 reflects growing evidence of disruptions to global economic activity along with reduced expected travel globally as a result of restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic.
[New] Travel restrictions will cut global trade by up to $2.6 trillion, which is already reeling from trade tensions between the United States and China, a global growth slowdown and weaker business confidence.
[New] Border closures, travel restrictions, and lockdowns that outbreak-affected economies implemented to arrest the spread of COVID-19 will likely cut global trade by $1.7 trillion to $2.6 trillion.
[New] The significant decline in tourism revenues and weaker export demand will put more pressure on the external balance, although if sustained, the lower oil price will provide limited support given Turkey's dependence on imported energy.
[New] With the U.S. economy forecasted to contract by 5.9% in 2020, Mexico is likely to see significant declines in demand for its exports, foreign direct investment, tourism, and remittances.
By the end of this year the tourism industry is forecast to lose between 850 million and 1.1 billion tourists, with up to 120 million jobs at risk and a global loss of up to £970bn in export revenues from tourism.
Breaking down the different components behind the projected decline in global payments revenues, McKinsey predicts a drop by 25 to 30% in cross border consumer-to-business (C2B) transactions driven by the disruption of travel and tourism.

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Last updated: 30 May 2020