Military

• [New] For the first time since World War II, America's technological predominance - the backbone of its economic and military power - is under threat.
• [New] The West fears Iran wants to build nuclear weapons, while Tehran says that has never been its goal.
• [New] The use of lithium batteries is expected to further expand over the next five years to include heavy-duty platforms, such as military vehicles, vessels, cover applications, aircraft, and missiles.
• [New] To avoid a full conflict with the United States, it is likely that China will turn to proxy warfare in regions of U.S. interest.
• [New] The dependency of the United States on semiconductor imports, particularly from Taiwan, creates a strategic vulnerability for both its economy and military to adverse foreign government action, natural disaster, and other events that can disrupt the supply chains for electronics.
• [New] The United States will use the military instrument to restore deterrence even as it prepares for nuclear talks with Tehran.
• [New] China faces the risk that, if it uses force, the United States might extend full military support to Taiwan, in which case China would end up paying an unpredictable cost to achieve its goal.
• [New] While the United States and NATO see Russia and China primarily as threats, European businesses view them as key partners.
• [New] NATO 2030 commits all alliance members to a costly, all-consuming military competition with Russia and China that will expose them to an ever-increasing risk of nuclear war.
• [New] The UK will enforce sanctions immediately against 6 military members of the State Administration Council for their responsibility for serious human rights violations.
• [New] Because military competition with the United States is increasing, China can no longer be certain it would have time to arm the missiles that will need to be on alert to improve the credibility of China deterrent.
• [New] Kristensen posts that Beijing could be seeking to reduce the vulnerability of its missile force, overcome an adversary's missile defenses or increase its strike capability.
• [New] The United States will continue to have outsize leverage over the peace process due to the size of its military and economic assistance to the Afghan state.
• [New] If China and Russia viewed proliferation as a genuine threat, Iran and North Korea by now would be subjected to severe enough multilateral sanctions to give up nuclear weapons ambitions or face regime change.
• [New] Around six-in-ten support Biden's ability to handle the threat of terrorism, make decisions on the use of military force, deal with climate change and make good decisions about international trade.
• [New] Iran recently revoked the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) right to conduct snap inspections, a move that raises a threat to Israel and would allow Iran to continue its nuclear weapons development without the risk of undeclared site inspection.
• [New] Five years later, the United States must assume that the Assad regime's main enablers (Iran and Russia) will not allow Damascus to collapse.
• The United States could de-emphasize the military aspects of competition with China and instead focus on the economic and technological aspects.

Last updated: 04 March 2021